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ASV Neumarkt vs DJK Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
Preview
13:00
DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
10/31/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17
55%
ASV Neumarkt
model favours
55%21%23%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ASV Neumarkt55%
×Draw21%
DJK Bamberg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
2.06
DJK Bamberg
1.27

ASV Neumarkt creates 62% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
DJK Bamberg
1.06

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
DJK Bamberg
2.35

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
DJK Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

DJK Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
77%
ASV Neumarkt or DJK Bamberg
79%
Draw or DJK Bamberg
45%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
33%
DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
87%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
61%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
34%
DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
72%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
36%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
70%
DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

DJK Bamberg away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + DJK Bamberg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.06

DJK Bamberg attack 1.06 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
55%
level
21%
DJK Bamberg scores more
23%

ASV Neumarkt at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neumarkt
LLWW
Bamberg
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASV Neumarkt vs DJK Bamberg — Match Preview

ASV Neumarkt face DJK Bamberg on October 31, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.