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ASV Neumarkt vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
Preview
13:00
Cham
Cham
5/15/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33
Big match
42%
ASV Neumarkt
model favours
42%24%34%

Top-of-the-table clash — ASV Neumarkt 3 vs Cham 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ASV Neumarkt42%
×Draw24%
Cham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.63
Cham
1.46

ASV Neumarkt creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Cham
1.44

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Cham
1.49

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
66%
ASV Neumarkt or Cham
76%
Draw or Cham
58%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
21%
Cham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
80%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
48%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
22%
Cham 1+ goals
77%
Cham 2+ goals
43%
Cham 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
55%
Cham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cham attack 1.44 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
42%
level
24%
Cham scores more
34%

ASV Neumarkt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neumarkt
LLWW
Cham
LLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ASV Neumarkt host Cham

May 15, 2027: ASV Neumarkt take on Cham in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.