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ASV Neumarkt vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
Preview
13:00
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
11/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21
Big match
43%
ASV Neumarkt
model favours
43%23%34%

Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ASV Neumarkt43%
×Draw23%
Bayern Hof34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.70
Bayern Hof
1.49

ASV Neumarkt creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Bayern Hof
1.49

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Bayern Hof
1.64

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
66%
ASV Neumarkt or Bayern Hof
77%
Draw or Bayern Hof
57%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
22%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
82%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
51%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
24%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
77%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
44%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
56%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
43%
level
23%
Bayern Hof scores more
34%

ASV Neumarkt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Neumarkt
LLWW
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASV Neumarkt vs Bayern Hof — Match Preview

ASV Neumarkt face Bayern Hof on November 28, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.