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ASV 13 vs Gerasdorf Stammersdorf — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
FT
1 – 1
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
3/7/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 17Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

ASV 1339%
×Draw23%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.72
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 73 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.25

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
1.96

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
61%
ASV 13 or Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
77%
Draw or Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
61%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
20%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
82%
ASV 13 2+ goals
51%
ASV 13 3+ goals
25%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals
52%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
50%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.72

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.25 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASV 13 scores more
39%
level
23%
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more
39%

ASV 13 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASV 13 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: ASV 13 1–1 Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

ASV 13 and Gerasdorf Stammersdorf drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Wien on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV 13 in Wien.