Astrakhan 2–1 Legion Dynamo: Result & Stats | Cup

Astrakhan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Legion Dynamo

8/21/2024

Cup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion imeni Kolosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Astrakhan61%

×Draw19%

Legion Dynamo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchLegion Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.25

Astrakhan

2.33

Legion Dynamo

1.25

Astrakhan creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.17

1.33

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Astrakhan

1.50

Legion Dynamo

1.17

allows per match

Astrakhan

1.33

Legion Dynamo

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Legion Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw

80%

Astrakhan or Legion Dynamo

81%

Draw or Legion Dynamo

39%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+

39%

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals

90%

Astrakhan 2+ goals

67%

Astrakhan 3+ goals

41%

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

71%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

36%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)

76%

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.50 + Legion Dynamo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Legion Dynamo attack 1.17 + Astrakhan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Astrakhan scores more

61%

level

19%

Legion Dynamo scores more

20%

Astrakhan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff