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Astrakhan vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
7/16/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion imeni Kolosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Astrakhan37%
×Draw27%
Legion Dynamo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.27
Legion Dynamo
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
64%
Astrakhan or Legion Dynamo
73%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
63%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
16%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
72%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
36%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
14%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
71%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
36%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
51%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Astrakhan scores more
37%
level
27%
Legion Dynamo scores more
36%

Astrakhan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Astrakhan 2–2 Legion Dynamo

Astrakhan and Legion Dynamo drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 1 on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Kolosova in Astrakhan'.