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Aston Villa W vs Everton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Everton W
Everton W
1/13/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundPoundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aston Villa W44%
×Draw19%
Everton W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa W
2.49
Everton W
2.26

Aston Villa W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Aston Villa W
3.71
Everton W
2.82

allows per match

Aston Villa W
1.71
Everton W
1.27

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par
Everton W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Everton W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw
64%
Aston Villa W or Everton W
81%
Draw or Everton W
56%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+
26%
Everton W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals
92%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
71%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
45%
Everton W 1+ goals
89%
Everton W 2+ goals
66%
Everton W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
55%
Everton W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Everton W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 3.71 + Everton W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.49

Everton W attack 2.82 + Aston Villa W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aston Villa W scores more
44%
level
19%
Everton W scores more
36%

Aston Villa W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aston Villa W vs Everton W

Everton W beat Aston Villa W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.