Aston Villa 2–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

4/8/2023

Premier League · Round 30Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Aston Villa49%

×Draw25%

Nottingham Forest26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.10

Aston Villa

1.62

Nottingham Forest

1.10

Aston Villa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

1.40

creates per match

1.01

1.19

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.40

Nottingham Forest

1.01

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.19

Nottingham Forest

1.84

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.32scores more

Nottingham Forest+0.39scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

74%

Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest

75%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

51%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

26%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

80%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

48%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

22%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

67%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

30%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

66%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 25 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.84 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.40 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Nottingham Forest attack 1.01 + Aston Villa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aston Villa scores more

49%

level

25%

Nottingham Forest scores more

26%

Aston Villa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff