Aston Villa 2–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Newcastle

A. El Ghazi 36'

C. Hourihane 32'

11/25/2019

Premier League · Round 13Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Aston Villa38%

×Draw26%

Newcastle36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Aston Villa

1.32

Newcastle

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.45

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Newcastle

1.20

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

64%

Aston Villa or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

62%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

17%

Newcastle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

73%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

38%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

15%

Newcastle 1+ goals

72%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

52%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aston Villa scores more

38%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

36%

Aston Villa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Hourihane

Aston Villa · M

8.6

Match Events

32'

C. Hourihane↳ J. Grealish

35'

Federico Fernández

36'

A. El Ghazi↳ C. Hourihane

63'

A. Carroll← P. Dummett

72'

D. Gayle← Joelinton

79'

C. Atsu← M. Almirón

80'

Wesley

90+1'

H. Lansbury← C. Hourihane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonNewcastle

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots11

11Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target5

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

12Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

490Total Passes296

425Accurate Passes232

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2