Aston Villa 2–2 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United

Philippe Coutinho 81'

J. Ramsey 77'

Bruno Fernandes 67', 6'

1/15/2022

Premier League · Round 22Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Aston Villa41%

×Draw25%

Manchester United34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.33

Aston Villa

1.48

Manchester United

1.33

Aston Villa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

1.45

creates per match

1.36

1.29

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Manchester United

1.52

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

66%

Aston Villa or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

59%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

20%

Manchester United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

77%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

43%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

19%

Manchester United 1+ goals

74%

Manchester United 2+ goals

38%

Manchester United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

55%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aston Villa scores more

41%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

34%

Aston Villa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Bruno Fernandes

Manchester United · M

8.5

Match Events

6'

Bruno Fernandes↳ Alex Telles

27'

31'

46'

46'

67'

Bruno Fernandes↳ Fred

68'

Philippe Coutinho← M. Sanson

76'

Carney Chukwuemeka← D. Ings

77'

J. Ramsey

78'

J. Sancho← A. Elanga

81'

Philippe Coutinho↳ J. Ramsey

89'

J. Lingard← M. Greenwood

89'

D. van de Beek← Bruno Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonManchester

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots13

3Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots13

9On Target6

4Off Target4

0Blocked3

11Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

540Total Passes451

454Accurate Passes368

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1