Aston Villa 0–3 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester United

P. Pogba 58'

M. Greenwood 45+5'

Bruno Fernandes 27' (pen)

7/9/2020

Premier League · Round 34Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Aston Villa40%

×Draw25%

Manchester United35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.35

Aston Villa

1.46

Manchester United

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

1.44

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.43

Manchester United

1.44

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.27

Manchester United

1.50

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Manchester United+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

65%

Aston Villa or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

60%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

19%

Manchester United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

77%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

43%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

18%

Manchester United 1+ goals

74%

Manchester United 2+ goals

39%

Manchester United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

53%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.43 + Manchester United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Manchester United attack 1.44 + Aston Villa defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aston Villa scores more

40%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

35%

Aston Villa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Pogba

Manchester United · M

8.4

Match Events

27'

Bruno FernandesPenalty

40'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

45'

Nemanja Matić

45+5'

M. Greenwood↳ A. Martial

52'

Ezri Konsa

58'

C. Hourihane← A. El Ghazi

58'

P. Pogba↳ Bruno Fernandes

59'

K. Davis← M. Samatta

59'

M. Nakamba← J. McGinn

66'

B. Williams← A. Wan-Bissaka

66'

S. McTominay← N. Matić

71'

Fred← Bruno Fernandes

79'

O. Ighalo← A. Martial

79'

D. James← M. Greenwood

81'

Marvelous Nakamba

84'

I. Vassilev← Douglas Luiz

87'

Fred

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonManchester

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots14

3Corners5

7Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target6

5Off Target6

3Blocked2

4Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

310Total Passes637

236Accurate Passes567

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1