Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace

J. Andersen 27' (OG)

3/4/2023

Premier League · Round 26Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Aston Villa40%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.20

Aston Villa

1.34

Crystal Palace

1.20

Aston Villa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.39

creates per match

1.22

1.18

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.39

Crystal Palace

1.22

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.18

Crystal Palace

1.30

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Crystal Palace-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

67%

Aston Villa or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

60%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

18%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

74%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

39%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

15%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

70%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

34%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

55%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.39 + Crystal Palace defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Crystal Palace attack 1.22 + Aston Villa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aston Villa scores more

40%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

33%

Aston Villa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Cash

Aston Villa · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

Wilfried ZahaGoal cancelled

27'

J. AndersenOwn goal

57'

Cheick Doucouré

59'

C. Chambers← B. Kamara

62'

62'

66'

67'

69'

69'

70'

L. Digne← Álex Moreno

75'

W. Hughes← E. Eze

75'

N. Ahamada← J. Ayew

80'

Douglas Luiz

81'

J. McArthur← A. Lokonga

82'

Naouirou Ahamada

85'

J. Durán← O. Watkins

87'

Wilfried Zaha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonCrystal

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots3

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.17

2Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots3

1On Target0

4Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box2

1Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

526Total Passes364

462Accurate Passes305

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides5