Aston Villa 1–2 Brighton: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brighton

E. Konsa 47'

S. March 56'

D. Welbeck 12'

11/21/2020

Premier League · Round 9Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Aston Villa40%

×Draw24%

Brighton35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.44

Aston Villa

1.55

Brighton

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

1.45

creates per match

1.58

1.29

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Brighton

1.58

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Brighton

1.66

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Brighton-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

65%

Aston Villa or Brighton

76%

Draw or Brighton

60%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

20%

Brighton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

79%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

46%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

20%

Brighton 1+ goals

76%

Brighton 2+ goals

42%

Brighton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

53%

Brighton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Brighton defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Brighton attack 1.58 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aston Villa scores more

40%

level

24%

Brighton scores more

35%

Aston Villa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. March

Brighton · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

B. Traoré← R. Barkley

12'

D. Welbeck↳ A. Lallana

44'

Matt Targett

46'

J. Veltman← A. Lallana

47'

E. Konsa↳ B. Traoré

56'

S. March↳ P. Groß

69'

Yves Bissouma

74'

A. El Ghazi← B. Traoré

75'

C. Hourihane← Douglas Luiz

80'

D. Burn← N. Maupay

88'

Tariq Lamptey

90'

Jack Grealish

90'

TrezeguetGoal cancelled

90'

Tariq Lamptey

90'

Tariq Lamptey

90+5'

J. Molumby← P. Groß

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonBrighton

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots7

12Corners3

5Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target3

6Off Target3

5Blocked1

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

457Total Passes385

381Accurate Passes313

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0