Aston Villa 2–4 Arsenal: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.52

Aston Villa

1.21

Arsenal

1.52

Arsenal creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.45

creates per match

1.74

1.29

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.45

Arsenal

1.74

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.29

Arsenal

0.98

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.34scores more

Arsenal+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

56%

Aston Villa or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

70%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

13%

Arsenal wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

70%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

34%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

12%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

45%

Arsenal 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

41%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.45 + Arsenal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arsenal attack 1.74 + Aston Villa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aston Villa scores more

30%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

44%

Arsenal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Ødegaard

Arsenal · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

O. Watkins↳ M. Cash

16'

B. Saka

31'

Philippe Coutinho↳ Álex Moreno

45+2'

Douglas Luiz

45+2'

Bukayo Saka

61'

O. Zinchenko↳ M. Ødegaard

62'

J. Ramsey← Philippe Coutinho

67'

L. Dendoncker← Douglas Luiz

67'

L. Bailey← E. Buendía

68'

Gabriel Martinelli← L. Trossard

78'

L. Digne← Álex Moreno

78'

J. Durán← O. Watkins

79'

Fábio Vieira← G. Xhaka

79'

T. Tomiyasu← B. White

84'

Emiliano Martínez

90+5'

R. Holding← M. Ødegaard

90+5'

K. Tierney← O. Zinchenko

90+3'

E. MartínezOwn goal

90+8'

Gabriel Martinelli↳ Fábio Vieira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonArsenal

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots20

0.51Expected Goals (xG)3.28

2Corners9

13Fouls4

Shots

7Total Shots20

5On Target5

1Off Target8

1Blocked7

4Inside Box12

3Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

293Total Passes571

225Accurate Passes489

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls4

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2