Asteras Tripolis 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus

Asteras Tripolis

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Olympiakos Piraeus

11/12/2023

Super League 1 · Round 11Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Asteras Tripolis25%

×Draw27%

Olympiakos Piraeus48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asteras TripolisExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.41

Asteras Tripolis

0.94

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.41

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 50% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 137 away

1.20

creates per match

1.71

1.10

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Asteras Tripolis

1.20

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.71

allows per match

Asteras Tripolis

1.10

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asteras Tripolis ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Asteras Tripolis or draw

52%

Asteras Tripolis or Olympiakos Piraeus

73%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

75%

Winning margin

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+

9%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals

61%

Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals

24%

Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals

7%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

76%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

41%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)

34%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asteras Tripolis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.69 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.94

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.71 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Asteras Tripolis scores more

25%

level

27%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

48%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff