Assyriska FF vs AFC Eskilstuna

Assyriska FF

Preview

17:30

AFC Eskilstuna

9/17/2026

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 22Sodertalje Fotbollsarena

Big match

45%

Assyriska FF

model favours

45%21%34%

Assyriska FF score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

73%

over 2.5 goals

72%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Assyriska FF45%

×Draw21%

AFC Eskilstuna34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Assyriska FFExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.75

Assyriska FF

2.04

AFC Eskilstuna

1.75

Assyriska FF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

1.69

creates per match

1.76

1.75

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Assyriska FF

1.69

AFC Eskilstuna

1.76

allows per match

Assyriska FF

1.75

AFC Eskilstuna

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw

66%

Assyriska FF or AFC Eskilstuna

79%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

55%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+

25%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals

87%

Assyriska FF 2+ goals

60%

Assyriska FF 3+ goals

33%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

83%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

52%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)

57%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 1.69 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.04

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Assyriska FF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Assyriska FF scores more

45%

level

21%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

34%

Assyriska FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Assyriska FF raise their game against the top half — 27% wins vs the upper half, only 26% vs the lower
Both teams score in 71% of Assyriska FF’s matches
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

FF

WDLLW

Eskilstuna

WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff