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Asswehly vs Abu Salim — Premier League 2019

Asswehly
Asswehly
FT
0 – 1
Abu Salim
Abu Salim
7/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Asswehly45%
×Draw30%
Abu Salim25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asswehly
1.22
Abu Salim
0.83

Asswehly creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 61 away

creates per match

Asswehly
1.37
Abu Salim
0.82

allows per match

Asswehly
0.85
Abu Salim
1.07

finishing

Asswehly+0.00on par
Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asswehly ↓

Abu Salim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asswehly or draw
75%
Asswehly or Abu Salim
70%
Draw or Abu Salim
55%

Winning margin

Asswehly wins by 2+
20%
Abu Salim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Asswehly 1+ goals
70%
Asswehly 2+ goals
34%
Asswehly 3+ goals
12%
Abu Salim 1+ goals
56%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
20%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Asswehly (draw refunded)
64%
Abu Salim (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asswehly at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asswehly attack 1.37 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Asswehly defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Asswehly scores more
45%
level
30%
Abu Salim scores more
25%

Asswehly at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Asswehly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asswehly 0–1 Abu Salim

Abu Salim beat Asswehly 1-0 in Premier League on July 19, 2021.