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ASPAC vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
PST
15:00
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
5/24/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 28Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

ASPAC51%
×Draw31%
Réal Sport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.21
Réal Sport
0.60

ASPAC creates 102% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 82 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.27
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

ASPAC
0.74
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
82%
ASPAC or Réal Sport
69%
Draw or Réal Sport
49%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
23%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
70%
ASPAC 2+ goals
34%
ASPAC 3+ goals
12%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
45%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
12%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
74%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.74 · 124 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.27 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + ASPAC defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ASPAC scores more
51%
level
31%
Réal Sport scores more
18%

ASPAC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASPAC vs Réal Sport — Match Preview

ASPAC face Réal Sport on May 24, 2020 in this Championnat National fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

ASPAC host Réal Sport at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.