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ASPAC vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
PST
00:00
JSP
JSP
6/14/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 30Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

ASPAC49%
×Draw29%
JSP22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.31
JSP
0.78

ASPAC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 110 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.27
JSP
0.82

allows per match

ASPAC
0.75
JSP
1.36

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
78%
ASPAC or JSP
71%
Draw or JSP
51%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
23%
JSP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
73%
ASPAC 2+ goals
38%
ASPAC 3+ goals
14%
JSP 1+ goals
54%
JSP 2+ goals
18%
JSP 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
69%
JSP (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

JSP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.27 + JSP defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

JSP attack 0.82 + ASPAC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ASPAC scores more
49%
level
29%
JSP scores more
22%

ASPAC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASPAC vs JSP — Match Preview

ASPAC face JSP on June 14, 2020 in this Championnat National fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

ASPAC host JSP at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.