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ASPAC vs ASVO — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
FT
1 – 0
ASVO
ASVO
6/3/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 8Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

ASPAC40%
×Draw32%
ASVO28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.05
ASVO
0.81

ASPAC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 114 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.26
ASVO
0.88

allows per match

ASPAC
0.75
ASVO
0.85

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
ASVO+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

ASVO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
72%
ASPAC or ASVO
68%
Draw or ASVO
60%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
16%
ASVO wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
65%
ASPAC 2+ goals
28%
ASPAC 3+ goals
9%
ASVO 1+ goals
56%
ASVO 2+ goals
19%
ASVO 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
59%
ASVO (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.75 · 122 matches

ASVO away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.26 + ASVO defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

ASVO attack 0.88 + ASPAC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ASPAC scores more
40%
level
32%
ASVO scores more
28%

ASPAC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASPAC vs ASVO

ASPAC beat ASVO 1-0 in Championnat National on June 3, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.