ASKO 1–0 Réal Bamako: Result & Stats

ASKO

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Réal Bamako

D. Magane 71'

5/31/2023

Première Division · Round 21Stade Omnisports de Bougouni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

ASKO29%

×Draw32%

Réal Bamako38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASKOExpected goals in this matchRéal Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.00

ASKO

0.83

Réal Bamako

1.00

Réal Bamako creates 20% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 99 away

0.93

creates per match

1.15

0.86

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

ASKO

0.93

Réal Bamako

1.15

allows per match

ASKO

0.86

Réal Bamako

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASKO+0.00on par

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASKO ↓

Réal Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ASKO or draw

62%

ASKO or Réal Bamako

68%

Draw or Réal Bamako

71%

Winning margin

ASKO wins by 2+

10%

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ASKO 1+ goals

56%

ASKO 2+ goals

20%

ASKO 3+ goals

5%

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

63%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

26%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ASKO (draw refunded)

43%

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASKO at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASKO attack 0.93 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + ASKO defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ASKO scores more

29%

level

32%

Réal Bamako scores more

38%

Réal Bamako at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

D. Magane

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff