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ASKO vs Black Stars — Première Division 2019

ASKO
ASKO
FT
0 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
12/10/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 6Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

ASKO44%
×Draw30%
Black Stars27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASKO
1.21
Black Stars
0.87

ASKO creates 39% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

creates per match

ASKO
0.96
Black Stars
0.87

allows per match

ASKO
0.87
Black Stars
1.46

finishing

ASKO+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASKO ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASKO or draw
73%
ASKO or Black Stars
70%
Draw or Black Stars
56%

Winning margin

ASKO wins by 2+
19%
Black Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ASKO 1+ goals
70%
ASKO 2+ goals
34%
ASKO 3+ goals
12%
Black Stars 1+ goals
58%
Black Stars 2+ goals
22%
Black Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ASKO (draw refunded)
62%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASKO at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 83 matches

Black Stars away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASKO attack 0.96 + Black Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Black Stars attack 0.87 + ASKO defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASKO scores more
44%
level
30%
Black Stars scores more
27%

ASKO at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASKO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASKO vs Black Stars

Black Stars beat ASKO 1-0 in Première Division on December 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.