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Asheville City vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Asheville City
Asheville City
PST
23:30
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
7/3/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 47Memorial Stadium (Asheville, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Asheville City50%
×Draw22%
Tormenta II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asheville City
1.92
Tormenta II
1.37

Asheville City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 23 away

creates per match

Asheville City
2.57
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Asheville City
0.61
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Asheville City+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asheville City ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Asheville City or draw
73%
Asheville City or Tormenta II
78%
Draw or Tormenta II
50%

Winning margin

Asheville City wins by 2+
28%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Asheville City 1+ goals
85%
Asheville City 2+ goals
57%
Asheville City 3+ goals
30%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
75%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
40%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Asheville City (draw refunded)
65%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asheville City at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asheville City attack 2.57 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Asheville City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Asheville City scores more
50%
level
22%
Tormenta II scores more
27%

Asheville City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Asheville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asheville City vs Tormenta II — Match Preview

Asheville City face Tormenta II on July 3, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Asheville City host Tormenta II at Memorial Stadium (Asheville, North Carolina).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.