Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aserri FC vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
3/27/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16Estadio ST Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Aserri FC56%
×Draw23%
Turrialba Fc21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.85
Turrialba Fc
1.05

Aserri FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 101 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Turrialba Fc
0.86

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Turrialba Fc
2.38

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
79%
Aserri FC or Turrialba Fc
77%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
44%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
32%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
84%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
55%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
28%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
65%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
28%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
72%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aserri FC scores more
56%
level
23%
Turrialba Fc scores more
21%

Aserri FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aserri FC vs Turrialba Fc

Aserri FC beat Turrialba Fc 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio ST Center in San José.