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Aserri FC vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
3/3/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 11Estadio Municipal de Aserrí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Aserri FC36%
×Draw27%
Limón Black Star37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.27
Limón Black Star
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 36 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
63%
Aserri FC or Limón Black Star
73%
Draw or Limón Black Star
64%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
16%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
72%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
36%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
14%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
72%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
37%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
49%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aserri FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Limón Black Star scores more
37%

Limón Black Star at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aserri FC vs Limón Black Star

Limón Black Star beat Aserri FC 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Aserrí in Jorco.