Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aserri FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
8/22/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal de Aserrí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Aserri FC43%
×Draw26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.48
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.21

Aserri FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 124 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
69%
Aserri FC or Futbol Consultants Moravia
74%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
57%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
21%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
77%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
43%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
19%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
70%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
34%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
58%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aserri FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
31%

Aserri FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Aserri FC beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Aserrí in Jorco.