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Aserri FC vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
9/7/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 9Estadio Municipal de Aserrí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Aserri FC45%
×Draw25%
Cariari Pococi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.56
Cariari Pococi
1.24

Aserri FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 107 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
70%
Aserri FC or Cariari Pococi
75%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
55%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
23%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
79%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
46%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
21%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
71%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
35%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
60%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aserri FC scores more
45%
level
25%
Cariari Pococi scores more
30%

Aserri FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 2–2 Cariari Pococi

Aserri FC and Cariari Pococi drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on September 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Aserrí in Jorco.