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Asenovets vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
2 – 1
Karnobat
Karnobat
5/14/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 32Stadion Shipka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Asenovets60%
×Draw21%
Karnobat19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
2.10
Karnobat
1.09

Asenovets creates 93% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 118 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
81%
Asenovets or Karnobat
79%
Draw or Karnobat
40%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
37%
Karnobat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
88%
Asenovets 2+ goals
62%
Asenovets 3+ goals
35%
Karnobat 1+ goals
66%
Karnobat 2+ goals
30%
Karnobat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
76%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Asenovets scores more
60%
level
21%
Karnobat scores more
19%

Asenovets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Asenovets 2–1 Karnobat

Asenovets beat Karnobat 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Shipka in Asenovgrad.