Ascoli 2–1 Reggina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Reggina

O. Kragl 90+1'

G. Cangiano 83'

D. Liotti 19'

1/4/2021

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ascoli40%

×Draw29%

Reggina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchReggina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.04

Ascoli

1.20

Reggina

1.04

Ascoli creates 15% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 58 away

1.16

creates per match

0.95

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ascoli

1.16

Reggina

0.95

allows per match

Ascoli

1.12

Reggina

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Reggina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Reggina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

68%

Ascoli or Reggina

71%

Draw or Reggina

60%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

17%

Reggina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

70%

Ascoli 2+ goals

34%

Ascoli 3+ goals

12%

Reggina 1+ goals

65%

Reggina 2+ goals

28%

Reggina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

56%

Reggina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.12 · 119 matches

Reggina away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Reggina defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Reggina attack 0.95 + Ascoli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ascoli scores more

40%

level

29%

Reggina scores more

32%

Ascoli at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

D. Liotti

Reggina · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

D. Liotti↳ E. Del Prato

26'

Riccardo Brosco

46'

O. Kragl← N. Tofanari

46'

G. Cangiano← A. Gerbo

46'

F. De Rose← L. Crisetig

62'

Francesco De Rose

62'

N. Pierini← C. Chiricò

73'

74'

75'

83'

83'

G. Rolando← D. Liotti

83'

G. Cangiano↳ N. Pierini

87'

Oliver Kragl

90'

Gianmarco Cangiano

90+1'

O. Kragl↳ D. Quaranta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliReggina

Overview

60%Possession40%

6Total Shots12

4Corners5

11Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target5

3Off Target5

0Blocked2

2Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

577Total Passes364

481Accurate Passes274

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls18

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1