Ascoli 0–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

N. Citro 54'

1/26/2020

Serie B · Round 21Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Ascoli35%

×Draw28%

Frosinone37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.16

Ascoli

1.13

Frosinone

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 116 away

1.16

creates per match

1.20

1.12

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ascoli

1.16

Frosinone

1.20

allows per match

Ascoli

1.12

Frosinone

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

63%

Ascoli or Frosinone

72%

Draw or Frosinone

65%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

14%

Frosinone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

68%

Ascoli 2+ goals

31%

Ascoli 3+ goals

11%

Frosinone 1+ goals

69%

Frosinone 2+ goals

32%

Frosinone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

49%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.12 · 119 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Frosinone defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Frosinone attack 1.20 + Ascoli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ascoli scores more

35%

level

28%

Frosinone scores more

37%

Frosinone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Salvi

Frosinone · M

7.6

Match Events

20'

Michele Troiano

29'

Marcus Rohdén

51'

S. D'Elia← A. Beghetto

54'

N. Citro↳ A. Salvi

63'

D. Petrucci← M. Piccinocchi

68'

71'

77'

83'

86'

N. Haas← N. Citro

87'

Francesco Bardi

88'

Ricardo Matos← S. Padoin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliFrosinone

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots8

5Corners2

20Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

429Total Passes412

340Accurate Passes330

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0