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Ascoli vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
L. Rosseti 75'
D. Bisoli 90+4'
12/21/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 17Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Ascoli38%
×Draw28%
Brescia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.22
Brescia
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.16
Brescia
1.15

allows per match

Ascoli
1.12
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
66%
Ascoli or Brescia
72%
Draw or Brescia
62%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
16%
Brescia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
70%
Ascoli 2+ goals
34%
Ascoli 3+ goals
12%
Brescia 1+ goals
68%
Brescia 2+ goals
32%
Brescia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
53%
Brescia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.12 · 119 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Brescia attack 1.15 + Ascoli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ascoli scores more
38%
level
28%
Brescia scores more
34%

Ascoli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
F. Perucchini← I. Lanni
33'
Sandro Tonali
46'
L. Rosseti← M. Ardemagni
56'
L. Andrenacci← E. Alfonso
65'
Emanuele Ndoj
65'
A. Martinelli← N. Špalek
69'
Simone Romagnoli
72'
M. Cavion← B. Addae
74'
Riccardo Brosco
75'
L. Rosseti↳ M. Cavion
79'
Giacomo Beretta
86'
F. Ferrari← S. Romagnoli
90+4'
D. Bisoli↳ A. Donnarumma

Possession

49%Ascoli

Shots

12Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliBrescia
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots10
2Corners3
15Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots10
3On Target5
9Off Target5
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Serie B: Ascoli 1–1 Brescia

Ascoli and Brescia drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 21, 2018.

Goals: L. Rosseti (75'), D. Bisoli (90+4').

Brescia controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.