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Asante Kotoko vs Nations — Cup 2022

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotokoadvanced
FT
4 – 2
Nations
Nations
11/28/2023CupCup · Round of 64Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Asante Kotoko56%
×Draw25%
Nations19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.60
Nations
0.80

Asante Kotoko creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
2.00
Nations
1.00

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.60
Nations
1.20

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
81%
Asante Kotoko or Nations
75%
Draw or Nations
44%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
30%
Nations wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
80%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
47%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
22%
Nations 1+ goals
55%
Nations 2+ goals
19%
Nations 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
75%
Nations (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Nations away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 2.00 + Nations defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nations attack 1.00 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
56%
level
25%
Nations scores more
19%

Asante Kotoko at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asante Kotoko vs Nations

Asante Kotoko beat Nations 4-2 in Cup on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.