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Asante Kotoko vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
0 – 0
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
2/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Asante Kotoko48%
×Draw31%
Hearts of Oak21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.17
Hearts of Oak
0.68

Asante Kotoko creates 72% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 109 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.64
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
79%
Asante Kotoko or Hearts of Oak
69%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
52%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
21%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
69%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
33%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
11%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
49%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
15%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
69%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.64 · 109 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
48%
level
31%
Hearts of Oak scores more
21%

Asante Kotoko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
I. Ganiyu
54'
O. R. Hokemba
56'
I. Mensah← I. Mensah
56'
K. A. Frimpong← K. A. Frimpong
61'
S. Mudasiru← S. Mudasiru
68'
M. Sarpong← M. Sarpong
82'
P. Asmah← P. Asmah
83'
A. Latif
89'
F. Gama

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 0–0 Hearts of Oak

Asante Kotoko and Hearts of Oak drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.