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Åsane W vs Odd W — 1. Division Women 2022

Åsane W
Åsane W
Preview
11:00
Odd W
Odd W
10/3/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 20
65%
Åsane W
model favours
65%20%14%
2–0
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Åsane W65%
×Draw20%
Odd W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane W
2.03
Odd W
0.83

Åsane W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Åsane W
2.32
Odd W
1.19

allows per match

Åsane W
0.48
Odd W
1.74

finishing

Åsane W+0.00on par
Odd W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane W ↓

Odd W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Åsane W or draw
86%
Åsane W or Odd W
80%
Draw or Odd W
35%

Winning margin

Åsane W wins by 2+
40%
Odd W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Åsane W 1+ goals
87%
Åsane W 2+ goals
60%
Åsane W 3+ goals
33%
Odd W 1+ goals
56%
Odd W 2+ goals
20%
Odd W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Åsane W (draw refunded)
82%
Odd W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Odd W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane W attack 2.32 + Odd W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.03

Odd W attack 1.19 + Åsane W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Åsane W scores more
65%
level
20%
Odd W scores more
14%

Åsane W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Åsane W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWWWD
W
WWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Åsane W face Odd W (1. Division Women)

1. Division Women returns with Åsane W hosting Odd W. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.