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ASA vs Cianorte — Serie D 2025

ASA
ASA
Preview
20:00
Cianorte
Cianorte
7/25/2026Serie DSerie D · Round of 16
Big match
50%
ASA
model favours
50%28%22%

ASA are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ASA50%
×Draw28%
Cianorte22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
1.35
Cianorte
0.80

ASA creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

ASA
1.70
Cianorte
0.85

allows per match

ASA
0.75
Cianorte
1.00

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Cianorte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ASA or draw
78%
ASA or Cianorte
72%
Draw or Cianorte
50%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
24%
Cianorte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
74%
ASA 2+ goals
39%
ASA 3+ goals
15%
Cianorte 1+ goals
55%
Cianorte 2+ goals
19%
Cianorte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
69%
Cianorte (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.70 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cianorte attack 0.85 + ASA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ASA scores more
50%
level
28%
Cianorte scores more
22%

ASA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • ASA have won 3 in a row
  • ASA score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 20% of Cianorte’s matches
  • Cianorte score first in only 30% of matches
  • ASA have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Cianorte’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
ASA
WWWDD
Cianorte
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ASA host Cianorte

July 25, 2026: ASA take on Cianorte in Serie D. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.