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ASA Aarhus W vs Odense Q W — Kvindeliga 2019

ASA Aarhus W
ASA Aarhus W
Preview
12:00
Odense Q W
Odense Q W
9/20/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 8
51%
ASA Aarhus W
model favours
51%21%27%
2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ASA Aarhus W51%
×Draw21%
Odense Q W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA Aarhus W
2.11
Odense Q W
1.50

ASA Aarhus W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 32 away

creates per match

ASA Aarhus W
2.00
Odense Q W
1.19

allows per match

ASA Aarhus W
1.80
Odense Q W
2.22

finishing

ASA Aarhus W+0.00on par
Odense Q W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA Aarhus W ↓

Odense Q W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

ASA Aarhus W or draw
73%
ASA Aarhus W or Odense Q W
79%
Draw or Odense Q W
49%

Winning margin

ASA Aarhus W wins by 2+
30%
Odense Q W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ASA Aarhus W 1+ goals
88%
ASA Aarhus W 2+ goals
62%
ASA Aarhus W 3+ goals
35%
Odense Q W 1+ goals
78%
Odense Q W 2+ goals
44%
Odense Q W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ASA Aarhus W (draw refunded)
65%
Odense Q W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA Aarhus W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Odense Q W away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA Aarhus W attack 2.00 + Odense Q W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Odense Q W attack 1.19 + ASA Aarhus W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ASA Aarhus W scores more
51%
level
21%
Odense Q W scores more
27%

ASA Aarhus W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ASA Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWDLD
W
WDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASA Aarhus W vs Odense Q W — Match Preview

ASA Aarhus W face Odense Q W on September 20, 2026 in this Kvindeliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.