ASA Aarhus W vs Fortuna Hjørring W

ASA Aarhus W

Preview

11:00

Fortuna Hjørring W

8/29/2026

Kvindeliga · Round 5

46%

Fortuna Hjørring W

model favours

32%23%46%

ASA Aarhus W and Fortuna Hjørring W have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ASA Aarhus W32%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Hjørring W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASA Aarhus WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Hjørring W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.86

ASA Aarhus W

1.51

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.86

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 80 away

2.00

creates per match

1.93

1.80

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

ASA Aarhus W

2.00

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.93

allows per match

ASA Aarhus W

1.80

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASA Aarhus W+0.00on par

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA Aarhus W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ASA Aarhus W or draw

54%

ASA Aarhus W or Fortuna Hjørring W

77%

Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W

68%

Winning margin

ASA Aarhus W wins by 2+

15%

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

ASA Aarhus W 1+ goals

78%

ASA Aarhus W 2+ goals

44%

ASA Aarhus W 3+ goals

19%

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

84%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

55%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

ASA Aarhus W (draw refunded)

41%

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA Aarhus W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA Aarhus W attack 2.00 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.93 + ASA Aarhus W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASA Aarhus W scores more

32%

level

23%

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

46%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

WWDLD

W

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff