AS Soliman 1–2 Stade Tunisien: Result & Stats

AS Soliman

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Tunisien

O. Bilel 45'

B. Mejri 65', 4'

8/19/2023

League #202 · Round 1Stade de Soliman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

AS Soliman34%

×Draw34%

Stade Tunisien32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS SolimanExpected goals in this matchStade Tunisien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

0.84

AS Soliman

0.87

Stade Tunisien

0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 63 away

0.76

creates per match

0.83

0.85

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

AS Soliman

0.76

Stade Tunisien

0.83

allows per match

AS Soliman

0.85

Stade Tunisien

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Soliman+0.00on par

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Soliman ↓

Stade Tunisien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

AS Soliman or draw

68%

AS Soliman or Stade Tunisien

66%

Draw or Stade Tunisien

66%

Winning margin

AS Soliman wins by 2+

12%

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AS Soliman 1+ goals

58%

AS Soliman 2+ goals

22%

AS Soliman 3+ goals

6%

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

57%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

21%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AS Soliman (draw refunded)

51%

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Soliman at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Soliman attack 0.76 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Stade Tunisien attack 0.83 + AS Soliman defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

AS Soliman scores more

34%

level

34%

Stade Tunisien scores more

32%

AS Soliman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "AS Soliman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

45'

46'

65'

66'

Y. Zaalouti← A. Selmi

74'

B. Faye← A. Cheikh

81'

S. Osmane← H. Khadraoui

90+1'

D. Mendy← S. Khemissi

AS

Stade

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Ayari

66'▲Y. Zaalouti←▼A. Selmi

74'▲B. Faye←▼A. Cheikh

AS Soliman substitutes

ZaaloutiFaye

Manager: H. Dhaou

46'▲G. Ayadi←▼S. Lawson

81'▲S. Osmane←▼H. Khadraoui

90+1'▲D. Mendy←▼S. Khemissi

Stade Tunisien substitutes

AyadiOsmaneMendy