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AS Salé vs Widad Témara — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
1 – 1
Widad Témara
Widad Témara
12/14/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

AS Salé40%
×Draw29%
Widad Témara30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.18
Widad Témara
0.98

AS Salé creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Widad Témara
0.83

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Widad Témara
1.24

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Widad Témara+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Widad Témara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
70%
AS Salé or Widad Témara
71%
Draw or Widad Témara
60%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
17%
Widad Témara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
69%
AS Salé 2+ goals
33%
AS Salé 3+ goals
12%
Widad Témara 1+ goals
62%
Widad Témara 2+ goals
26%
Widad Témara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
57%
Widad Témara (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Widad Témara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Widad Témara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Widad Témara attack 0.83 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AS Salé scores more
40%
level
29%
Widad Témara scores more
30%

AS Salé at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 1–1 Widad Témara

AS Salé and Widad Témara drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.