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AS Salé vs Riadi Salmi — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
1 – 3
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
12/22/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

AS Salé38%
×Draw28%
Riadi Salmi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.18
Riadi Salmi
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Riadi Salmi
1.07

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Riadi Salmi
1.25

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
66%
AS Salé or Riadi Salmi
72%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
62%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
16%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
69%
AS Salé 2+ goals
33%
AS Salé 3+ goals
12%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
67%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
30%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
53%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Riadi Salmi attack 1.07 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Salé scores more
38%
level
28%
Riadi Salmi scores more
34%

AS Salé at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 1–3 Riadi Salmi

Riadi Salmi beat AS Salé 3-1 in Botola 2 on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé).