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AS Salé vs El Massira — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
3 – 1
El Massira
El Massira
9/22/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

AS Salé41%
×Draw29%
El Massira29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.20
El Massira
0.96

AS Salé creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
El Massira
0.79

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
El Massira
1.28

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
El Massira+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

El Massira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
71%
AS Salé or El Massira
71%
Draw or El Massira
59%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
18%
El Massira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
70%
AS Salé 2+ goals
34%
AS Salé 3+ goals
12%
El Massira 1+ goals
62%
El Massira 2+ goals
25%
El Massira 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
59%
El Massira (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

El Massira away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + El Massira defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

El Massira attack 0.79 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Salé scores more
41%
level
29%
El Massira scores more
29%

AS Salé at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Salé vs El Massira

AS Salé beat El Massira 3-1 in Botola 2 on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé).