AS Salé 3–1 Chabab Ben Guerir: Result & Stats

AS Salé

FT

3 – 1

Chabab Ben Guerir

5/15/2021

Botola 2 · Round 22Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

AS Salé40%

×Draw29%

Chabab Ben Guerir31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS SaléExpected goals in this matchChabab Ben Guerir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.98

AS Salé

1.16

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.98

AS Salé creates 18% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

1.11

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

AS Salé

1.11

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.83

allows per match

AS Salé

1.12

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw

69%

AS Salé or Chabab Ben Guerir

71%

Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir

60%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+

17%

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals

69%

AS Salé 2+ goals

32%

AS Salé 3+ goals

11%

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

62%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

26%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)

56%

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AS Salé scores more

40%

level

29%

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

31%

AS Salé at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff