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AS Roma vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
T. Abraham 36'
9/23/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma52%
×Draw25%
Udinese23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.57
Udinese
0.96

AS Roma creates 64% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Udinese
1.05

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Udinese
1.57

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
77%
AS Roma or Udinese
75%
Draw or Udinese
48%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
27%
Udinese wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
79%
AS Roma 2+ goals
46%
AS Roma 3+ goals
21%
Udinese 1+ goals
62%
Udinese 2+ goals
25%
Udinese 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
69%
Udinese (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Udinese attack 1.05 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS Roma scores more
52%
level
25%
Udinese scores more
23%

AS Roma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
G. ManciniAS RomaAS Roma · D
7.9

Match Events

32'
Walace
36'
T. Abraham↳ R. Calafiori
56'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
62'
B. Soppy← N. Molina
62'
Beto← I. Pussetto
65'
Bryan Cristante
66'
Riccardo Calafiori
69'
C. Smalling← R. Calafiori
74'
S. El Shaarawy← N. Zaniolo
79'
L. Samardžić← B. Nuytinck
79'
J. Stryger Larsen← D. Udogie
85'
T. Arslan← J. Makengo
86'
E. Shomurodov← T. Abraham
89'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
89'
Lorenzo Pellegrini

Possession

52%AS

Shots

12AS

Pass accuracy

51%AS

Statistics

ASUdinese
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
6Corners6
22Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target3
6Off Target5
4Blocked0
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
505Total Passes469
435Accurate Passes392
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
22Fouls8
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Udinese

AS Roma beat Udinese 1-0 in Serie A on September 23, 2021.

Goals: T. Abraham (36').

AS Roma controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.