Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AS Roma vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Udinese
Udinese
I. Nestorovski 78'
K. Lasagna 12'
7/2/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 29Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma52%
×Draw25%
Udinese23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.57
Udinese
0.96

AS Roma creates 64% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Udinese
1.05

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Udinese
1.57

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
77%
AS Roma or Udinese
75%
Draw or Udinese
48%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
27%
Udinese wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
79%
AS Roma 2+ goals
46%
AS Roma 3+ goals
21%
Udinese 1+ goals
62%
Udinese 2+ goals
25%
Udinese 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
69%
Udinese (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Udinese attack 1.05 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS Roma scores more
52%
level
25%
Udinese scores more
23%

AS Roma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Rodrigo De PaulUdineseUdinese · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
M. Zeegelaar
12'
K. Lasagna↳ R. De Paul
30'
D. Perotti
45+2'
S. Okaka
46'
K. Lasagna← L. Teodorczyk
46'
C. Under← H. Mkhitaryan
57'
Walace← S. Fofana
63'
B. Peres← D. Zappacosta
63'
A. Diawara← G. Villar del Fraile
65'
S. Okaka← I. Nestorovski
65'
M. Zeegelaar← H. ter Avest
68'
G. Villar del Fraile
72'
F. Fazio← Ibanez
72'
N. Kalinic← E. Dzeko
78'
I. Nestorovski↳ R. De Paul
80'
J. Stryger Larsen← Samir
89'
Ibanez

Possession

52%AS

Shots

18AS

Pass accuracy

50%AS

Statistics

ASUdinese
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots13
10Corners7
10Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots13
4On Target3
5Off Target6
9Blocked4
7Inside Box9
11Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
506Total Passes472
438Accurate Passes404
87%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Udinese

Udinese beat AS Roma 2-0 in Serie A on July 2, 2020.

Goals: K. Lasagna (12'), I. Nestorovski (78').

AS Roma controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.