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AS Roma vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
E. Džeko 67'
4/13/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 32Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma52%
×Draw25%
Udinese23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.57
Udinese
0.96

AS Roma creates 64% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Udinese
1.05

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Udinese
1.57

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
77%
AS Roma or Udinese
75%
Draw or Udinese
48%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
27%
Udinese wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
79%
AS Roma 2+ goals
46%
AS Roma 3+ goals
21%
Udinese 1+ goals
62%
Udinese 2+ goals
25%
Udinese 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
69%
Udinese (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Udinese attack 1.05 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS Roma scores more
52%
level
25%
Udinese scores more
23%

AS Roma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
R. de PaulUdineseUdinese · M
7.8

Match Events

37'
Juan Jesus
46'
Lorenzo Pellegrini← P. Schick
46'
A. Florenzi← Juan Jesus
59'
Marco D'Alessandro
63'
Juan Musso
67'
E. Džeko↳ S. El Shaarawy
69'
C. Ünder← D. De Rossi
69'
Sandro← R. Mandragora
72'
I. Pussetto← M. DAlessandro
77'
William Troost-Ekong
81'
Edin Džeko
84'
Ł. Teodorczyk← S. De Maio

Possession

53%AS

Shots

16AS

Pass accuracy

52%AS

Statistics

ASUdinese
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots11
7Corners6
11Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots11
4On Target2
7Off Target5
5Blocked4
13Inside Box7
3Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
422Total Passes367
346Accurate Passes283
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Udinese

AS Roma beat Udinese 1-0 in Serie A on April 13, 2019.

Goals: E. Džeko (67').

AS Roma controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.