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AS Roma vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
12/6/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 10Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma50%
×Draw25%
Sassuolo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.61
Sassuolo
1.05

AS Roma creates 53% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Sassuolo
1.23

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Sassuolo
1.66

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
75%
AS Roma or Sassuolo
75%
Draw or Sassuolo
50%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
26%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
80%
AS Roma 2+ goals
48%
AS Roma 3+ goals
22%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
65%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
28%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
67%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Roma scores more
50%
level
25%
Sassuolo scores more
25%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. PellegriniAS RomaAS Roma · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
Pedro
18'
Maxime López
25'
Gonzalo Villar
40'
Pedro
40'
Pedro
45'
Antonio Mirante
45'
Henrikh MkhitaryanGoal cancelled
46'
G. Raspadori← M. Lopez
71'
Giacomo Raspadori
73'
L. Haraslín← J. Boga
73'
H. Traorè← F. Đuričić
76'
Lukáš HaraslínGoal cancelled
79'
Pedro Obiang
82'
A. Diawara← L. Pellegrini
82'
G. Kiriakopoulos← Rogério
85'
Borja Mayoral← E. Džeko
85'
M. Bourabia← Pedro Obiang
87'
Rick Karsdorp
89'
Juan Jesus← M. Kumbulla

Possession

43%AS

Shots

16AS

Pass accuracy

49%AS

Statistics

ASSassuolo
Overview
43%Possession57%
16Total Shots5
12Corners5
10Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots5
1On Target1
8Off Target3
7Blocked1
12Inside Box1
4Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
392Total Passes537
325Accurate Passes472
83%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls11
5Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Serie A: AS Roma 0–0 Sassuolo

AS Roma and Sassuolo drew 0-0 in Serie A on December 6, 2020.

Sassuolo controlled possession (57%) and registered 5 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.