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AS Roma vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
11/6/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AS Roma50%
×Draw27%
Lazio24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.46
Lazio
0.92

AS Roma creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.65
Lazio
1.08

allows per match

AS Roma
0.76
Lazio
1.26

finishing

AS Roma+0.25scores more
Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
76%
AS Roma or Lazio
73%
Draw or Lazio
50%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
25%
Lazio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
77%
AS Roma 2+ goals
43%
AS Roma 3+ goals
18%
Lazio 1+ goals
60%
Lazio 2+ goals
23%
Lazio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
68%
Lazio (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 20 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.65 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lazio attack 1.08 + AS Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Roma scores more
50%
level
27%
Lazio scores more
24%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Lazio

Lazio beat AS Roma 1-0 in Serie A on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.