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AS Roma vs Inter — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
R. Lukaku 74'
F. Dimarco 33'
5/6/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

AS Roma39%
×Draw27%
Inter34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.33
Inter
1.21

AS Roma creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Inter
1.68

allows per match

AS Roma
0.74
Inter
1.08

finishing

AS Roma+0.20scores more
Inter+0.46scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
66%
AS Roma or Inter
73%
Draw or Inter
61%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
18%
Inter wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%
Inter 1+ goals
70%
Inter 2+ goals
34%
Inter 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
54%
Inter (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.74 · 22 matches

Inter away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.08 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Inter defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Inter attack 1.68 + AS Roma defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Roma scores more
39%
level
27%
Inter scores more
34%

AS Roma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. PellegriniAS RomaAS Roma · F
8.0

Match Events

27'
Gianluca Mancini
33'
F. Dimarco↳ D. Dumfries
58'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
60'
R. Bellanova← D. Dumfries
60'
Lautaro Martínez← J. Correa
65'
Lautaro Martínez
71'
P. Dybala← E. Bove
71'
S. de Vrij← F. Dimarco
71'
H. Mkhitaryan← H. Çalhanoğlu
74'
R. Lukaku↳ Lautaro Martínez
75'
T. Abraham← A. Belotti
77'
Leonardo Spinazzola
82'
R. Gagliardini← N. Barella
84'
Roberto Gagliardini
90+3'
N. Pisilli← M. Camara
90+3'
B. Tahirović← N. Matić
90+3'
F. Missori← N. Zalewski

Possession

50%AS

Shots

15AS

Pass accuracy

50%AS

Statistics

ASInter
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots10
0.97Expected Goals (xG)0.73
12Corners5
8Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots10
3On Target4
7Off Target3
5Blocked3
10Inside Box3
5Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
455Total Passes462
387Accurate Passes396
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2

Serie A: AS Roma 0–2 Inter

Inter beat AS Roma 2-0 in Serie A on May 6, 2023.

Goals: F. Dimarco (33'), R. Lukaku (74').

AS Roma controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.