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AS Roma vs Inter — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Inter
Inter
D. Dumfries 39'
E. Džeko 24'
H. Çalhanoğlu 15'
12/4/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 16Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma38%
×Draw26%
Inter36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.33
Inter
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Inter
1.69

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Inter
1.10

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Inter+0.28scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
64%
AS Roma or Inter
74%
Draw or Inter
62%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
17%
Inter wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%
Inter 1+ goals
72%
Inter 2+ goals
37%
Inter 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
52%
Inter (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Inter away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Inter defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Inter attack 1.69 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Roma scores more
38%
level
26%
Inter scores more
36%

AS Roma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. ÇalhanoğluInterInter · M
8.7

Match Events

15'
H. Çalhanoğlu
24'
E. Džeko↳ H. Çalhanoğlu
37'
Roger Ibañez
39'
D. Dumfries↳ A. Bastoni
46'
Nicolò Barella
59'
A. Sánchez← J. Correa
59'
A. Vidal← N. Barella
61'
E. Bove← M. Kumbulla
63'
Gianluca Mancini
75'
Nicolò Zaniolo
76'
F. Dimarco← A. Bastoni
76'
M. Vecino← E. Džeko
83'
S. Sensi← H. Çalhanoğlu
90+1'
C. Volpato← J. Veretout

Possession

34%AS

Shots

9AS

Pass accuracy

48%AS

Statistics

ASInter
Overview
34%Possession66%
9Total Shots10
4Corners4
9Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots10
1On Target4
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
5Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
34%Possession66%
380Total Passes765
329Accurate Passes712
87%Pass Accuracy93%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Inter

Inter beat AS Roma 3-0 in Serie A on December 4, 2021.

Goals: H. Çalhanoğlu (15'), E. Džeko (24'), D. Dumfries (39').

Inter controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.