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AS Roma vs Inter — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
A. Kolarov 74' (pen)
C. Ünder 51'
M. Icardi 66'
K. Baldé 37'
12/2/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

AS Roma38%
×Draw26%
Inter36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.33
Inter
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.53
Inter
1.72

allows per match

AS Roma
0.85
Inter
1.12

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Inter+0.31scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
64%
AS Roma or Inter
74%
Draw or Inter
62%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
17%
Inter wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%
Inter 1+ goals
72%
Inter 2+ goals
37%
Inter 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
52%
Inter (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.85 · 24 matches

Inter away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.12 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.53 + Inter defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Inter attack 1.72 + AS Roma defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Roma scores more
38%
level
26%
Inter scores more
36%

AS Roma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
M. BrozovićInterInter · M
7.7

Match Events

37'
K. Baldé↳ D. D'Ambrosio
48'
Kwadwo Asamoah
51'
C. Ünder↳ B. Cristante
62'
M. Politano← K. Baldé
66'
M. Icardi↳ M. Brozović
69'
J. Kluivert← D. Santon
74'
A. KolarovPenalty
77'
D. Perotti← N. Zaniolo
79'
Aleksandar Kolarov
80'
M. Vecino← Borja Valero
80'
Lautaro Martínez← I. Perišić
83'
J. Pastore← C. Ünder

Possession

45%AS

Shots

15AS

Pass accuracy

49%AS

Statistics

ASInter
Overview
45%Possession55%
15Total Shots17
5Corners6
10Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots17
5On Target7
8Off Target4
2Blocked6
9Inside Box14
6Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
388Total Passes482
318Accurate Passes403
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Inter

AS Roma and Inter drew 2-2 in Serie A on December 2, 2018.

Goals: K. Baldé (37'), C. Ünder (51'), M. Icardi (66'), A. Kolarov (74' pen).

Inter controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.